WealthyReadings

Intuitive Machines & Firefly Aerospace

Ticker: $LUNR & $FLY

IM is about space logistics and lunar infrastructure. Their core business is to design, manufacture and operate lunar landers (Nova-C and Nova-D) to transport scientific and commercial payloads to the surface of the Moon. They basically manufacture the luggage that contains what “travelers” want to bring to the moon and goes inside the rocket - except in this case the luggage can move by itself and deliver your panties right at your hotel door autonomously.

This is the core but not the only competence they have, they also manufacture rovers, Earth re-entry vehicles and other pieces of hardware (propulsion systems, avoidance systems, autonomy landing software, lunar rovers…), communication solutions on or close to the moon - basically setting up internet up there, software necessary for any companies travelling in the region, and a few other smaller things.

If I were to summarize, IM is one of the key player on hardware/software requirements to explore the moon but also later on, exploit it.

Their business model today is to fund R&D and capital intensive missions with governmental contracts; they are the primary NASA partner for lots of hardware and software, with a five years $4.82B contract to set up communication and navigation services for missions in the region - the famous moon’s internet, and late March a new $180M contract for IM’s fifth landing mission for NASA’s Commercial Lunar Payload Services (“CLPS”) initiative. NASA financed the four missions for a total ~$390M.

IM-1 was the first commercial payload to successfully land on the moon ever in February 2024, and transmitted 350 megabytes of information during ~140h, a pretty large success even if the NOVA tipped on landing, preventing perfect conditions and only transmitted for a few days. Can’t succeed on the first try right?

IM-2 confirmed the technology’s capacity to land but did not land where it was supposed - ~250m away, and could not set its solar panel right ending in a power outage. Initial tests were successful, with more complex tests being cancelled.

IM-3 is supposed to launch H2-26 with no defined dates yet, with autonomous robots, radiation sensors, a lunar plant experiment, Intuitive Machines’ first lunar data relay satellite - to start building a commercial data relay network in lunar orbit, and more… And IM-4 is scheduled in 2027, launched with SpaceX Falcon for always more hardware on the moon.

I think the case is pretty clear already. The technology still requires fine tuning which can only happen with tests and IM is NASA’s preferred partner for those, with Firefly Aerospace as its main competitor as it is a wish for NASA to diversify - meaning contracts will continue to go towards both, and others. IM is the undisputable leader today and proved its technology already so as NASA intends to accelerate the frequency of launches and tests, IM will naturally benefit from more contracts.

This is our generation’s space conquest and it is a very serious one which the U.S. intend to win. If you wonder why, the answers are simply: the moon is filled of key resources we’d love to extract, its gravity and conditions make it an interesting geography for any kind of manufacturing (pharmaceuticals and semiconductors are already being manufactured in space with many advantages), plus the need to make humanity an interplanetary species.

These kind of missions and the global interest around the moon will only increase in the years to come. Becoming the go-to hardware manufacturer for moon exploration and later on exploitation is something, just like becoming the preferred launcher for commercial or touristic space travels for SpaceX or Rocket Lab is.

There is an entire economy and supply chain on the space exploration sector which is set to explode in the years to come - I could write on that if interested.

And as said so many time, with the markets being about liquidity first, sentiment second and fundamentals third, the space sector is a large focus for #1 and #2 while #3 are still speculative but also very real, with potential. With SpaceX IPO coming this year, the excitement around the entire sector is palpable and should only increase - at least until D-day, boosting #1 and #2 further. It is already happening to be honest with SpaceX expected to IPO ~$2T which is massive, Rocket Lab up 135%, PlanetLabs up 724% or ASTMobile up 323% since 2025. Space is hot.

Without any surprises, IM is pushing higher and meeting my criteria - growing volume on rising stock with breakouts, and Firefly Aerospace which is also a publicly traded company (IPOd in 2025 so chart is in daily timeframe) has the exact same profile. Same sector, same tailwinds, same momentum.

Both are on a pretty tough resistance right now ~$23 and ~$35, breaking those levels on volume would trigger a clear uptrend for months - hence giving a great entry, while retesting lower breakout ~$20 and ~$28 respectively would give a great risk reward accumulation point… Two really strong setups either way.

This is the bottom line of the trades, speculative but based on real fundamentals and potential, carried by a heavy momentum with SpaceX and the Artemis II mission, the push governments are giving to space exploration, etc…

Two positions I could personally take with a few months timeframe as I’d also expect SpaceX IPO to print a top in optimism and anticipation - too early to say for now but probable.